Quarterly earnings of corporates, trading activity of foreign investors and inflation data are the key factors that are expected to drive the momentum in the equity markets this week, analysts said.
Equity mutual funds witnessed an inflow of Rs 35,943 crore in November, marking a drop of 14 per cent on a month-on-month basis, amid heightened volatility in stock markets driven by various macroeconomic factors, geopolitical events and US election results. Despite this, it marked the 45th consecutive month of net inflows into equity-oriented funds, reflecting the growing popularity of mutual funds among investors, according to data from the Association of Mutual Funds in India (AMFI) released on Tuesday.
The phased reopening and regulated relaxations of many key industries have paved the way for a slight recovery in hiring activities but hiring is still down by 47 per cent in July 2020 compared to the same month last year.
Delhi's air quality deteriorated significantly on Monday, with areas like Dwarka, Mundka and Najafgarh recording an AQI of 500, the worst this season. The city's overall AQI reached 491, triggering the implementation of the Graded Response Action Plan (GRAP) Stage-IV restrictions in Delhi-NCR. Doctors warned of health risks, urging people to wear N95 masks and avoid outdoor activities. The Supreme Court questioned the Delhi government on its anti-pollution measures and warned against scaling down preventive measures without its permission. Delhi Chief Minister Atishi accused the BJP-led central government of political maneuvering while neglecting stubble burning in states it governs. Meanwhile, the city enforced stricter pollution control measures, including a ban on truck entry and suspension of construction activities. Air purifier sales surged, reflecting the public's concern over the severe air pollution.
Hiring activity in the country, which was hit by the second COVID wave, bounced back with a 15 per cent growth in June compared to May, according to a report. The activity was led by the IT-software/software services sector. The latest Naukri JobSpeak report on Thursday said that India's hiring trends grew 15 per cent in June with 2,359 job postings from 2,047 in May.
Among the 30 Sensex firms, Bajaj Finance, Infosys, Adani Ports, JSW Steel, HCL Tech, Bharti Airtel, IndusInd Bank and Tata Motors were the biggest laggards. ICICI Bank, Bajaj Finserv, Titan, Nestle and HDFC Bank were among the gainers.
Adopting overly aggressive strategies without considering risk could lead to significant losses during the next downturn.
In 2024, the Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi) implemented significant reforms, focusing on cooling down the derivatives segment, enhancing transparency and accountability in small and midsised enterprise (SME) listings, and deepening the fund management ecosystem.
IndusInd Bank was the biggest gainer in the Sensex pack, rising 3.25 per cent, followed by Tech Mahindra, Wipro, Bharti Airtel, HCL Technologies, Axis Bank, HDFC Bank, RIL, TCS, L&T and Infosys. State Bank of India, NTPC, Maruti, Bajaj Finserv, Tata Motors and Power Grid were among the laggards, slipping up to 2.94 per cent.
Business confidence remained positive in August and was driven by upbeat forecasts of sales, an expected improvement in demand and promotional activities
The spike in food prices at the onset of the monsoon season has corroborated the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI's) view that the fight against inflation is far from over, the State of the Economy report of the central bank said. At the same time, the report said that the country is poised to become the fastest-growing major economy in the world, notwithstanding some sequential moderation in economic activity in June. Consumer Price Index (CPI)-based inflation rate increased to 4.8 per cent in June 2023, from 4.3 per cent in May, primarily on account of an increase in food inflation.
'Sebi had no problem with derivatives until trading exploded after Covid.' 'But now, having built a dangerous road, from which different entities, mainly governments, are extracting a heavy toll, Sebi is concerned that people are driving on it in much greater numbers,' explains Debashis Basu.
A reading above 50 indicates expansion while a one below this level means contraction.
'Today, let us reaffirm our commitment to strive to realise Gandhiji's dreams. His watchwords, truth and nonviolence, will continue to remain relevant for the whole world. He also taught us that rights and duties are but the two sides of the coin - indeed, the true source of rights is duty. Today we recall his lessons in compassion too - compassion not only for our human neighbours but also for our other neighbours, namely, flora and fauna, rivers and mountains.'
The Reserve Bank of India's (RBI's) interest rate decision, West Asia conflict and trading activity of foreign investors are the key factors that will dictate investors' sentiment in the market this week, analysts said. Moreover, quarterly earnings from IT bellwether TCS, domestic macroeconomic data and movement in global oil benchmark Brent crude would also guide trends in the market. Worsening tensions in the Middle East and foreign fund outflows were the major culprits behind the equity markets sharp fall last week.
The Insurance Regulatory and Development Authority of India (IRDAI) has asked life insurance companies not to advertise unit-linked plans as investment products in a recent circular.
India's services sector growth eased to a three-month low in June but service providers continued to signal positive demand trends, which resulted in a stronger increase in new business volumes and further job creation, a monthly survey said on Wednesday. The seasonally adjusted S&P Global India Services PMI Business Activity Index fell from 61.2 in May to 58.5 in June. Despite falling from May, the latest figure was consistent with a sharp pace of growth.
The growth in production of eight key infrastructure sectors entered a negative zone after three-and-a-half years, contracting 1.8 per cent in August 2024 due to decline in output of coal, crude oil, natural gas, refinery products, cement and electricity, according to official data released on Monday. The growth rate was 6.1 per cent in July. The growth of core sectors -- coal, crude oil, natural gas, refinery products, fertiliser, steel, cement and electricity -- was 13.4 per cent in August 2023.
Some residents have already taken this step to relocate, either temporarily or permanently, some to their native places and others to clean-air destinations like Goa and Himachal Pradesh.
Gujarat, Kerala and Tamil Nadu have topped an index that ranks states on food safety parameters for the 2020-21 year, according to an FSSAI report unveiled by Health Minister Mansukh Mandaviya on Monday. The index ranks states on five parameters of food safety: human resources and institutional data, compliance, food testing facility, training and capacity building besides consumer empowerment. Gujarat, Kerala and Tamil Nadu have topped in the list of large states on the index.
Equity investors will track the trading activity of foreign investors, global trends and ongoing earnings results for further cues, and benchmark indices may continue to witness consolidation in a holiday-shortened week amid the monthly derivatives expiry, analysts said. Markets fell sharply last week amid massive foreign capital outflows and dismal Q2 earnings so far. Weakness in the markets might continue in the near term amid cautiousness among investors ahead of the US presidential election early next month, an expert said.
On the job front, Indian service providers continued to add to their payrolls and the sector witnessed the second-strongest increase in employment since March 2011.
Inflows into equity mutual funds (MFs) continued their strong momentum in July, despite the market volatility triggered by the Union Budget.
'It's advisable not to go overboard on a banking sector fund or any other sector fund.'
The seasonally adjusted IHS Markit India Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was at 54.9 in February, up from 54.0 in January, signalling a stronger improvement in the sector's health. The February PMI data pointed to an improvement in overall operating conditions for the eighth straight month. In PMI parlance, a print above 50 means expansion, while a score below 50 denotes contraction.
The RBI under former governor Shaktikanta Das resisted pressures to cut interest rates through 2024 as it kept its 'Arjuna's eye' trained on inflation, but the central bank under a new detail-oriented head will soon have to take a call if it can continue sacrificing growth. Das, a career bureaucrat who in 2016 oversaw Prime Minister Narendra Modi's highly disruptive demonetisation move, left a lasting legacy as he demitted office towards the end of 2024 after expertly navigating monetary policy for six years, the highlight of which was steering India's recovery through the pandemic.
The Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi) is likely to notify soon stricter derivatives trading norms aimed at curbing speculative trading activity and curtailing losses of over Rs 50,000 crore incurred by retail investors every year. Based on the feedback received from industry participants, seven measures proposed by the market regulator in a consultation paper in July may be implemented with minor tweaks ahead of its forthcoming board meeting, said sources.
'Arbitrage funds make the most sense for those in the 30 per cent tax bracket, are viable for those in the 20 per cent bracket, but less so for those in the 10 per cent bracket.'
RBI interest rate decision, macroeconomic data and global trends would guide markets' movement this week, analysts said. Besides, trading activity of foreign investors and the last batch of Q1 earnings announcements would also guide trends in equities. HSBC PMI (Purchasing Managers' Index) for the services sector is scheduled to be announced on Monday.
Mutual Fund inflows in FY25 have already reached two-thirds of the total inflows seen in the entire FY24, with net inflows standing at Rs 1.3 trillion.
Business activity resumption continued for the fifth consecutive week as the second wave of infections and restrictions continued getting subsided, a Japanese brokerage said on Monday. The business activity now is only 13 percentage points lower than levels observed before the onset of pandemic in March 2020, Nomura said, citing the movement in a proprietary index of business activity resumption. The index had fallen to a trough of nearly 40 percentage point (pp) below the pre-pandemic levels for the week ended May 23 this year because of the impact of the second wave of the pandemic.
'The RBI's MPC will maintain the current policy rates (6.50%) at the policy meeting, given ongoing inflationary pressures.'
Dr Reddy's was the top loser in the Sensex pack, shedding around 2 per cent, followed by Reliance Industries, Sun Pharma, HDFC twins, Infosys, M&M and PowerGrid. NSE Nifty slumped 137.65 points to 14,496.50.
India's manufacturing sector growth moderated in August as output and sales rose at slowest rates since January, while competitive pressures and inflation concerns hampered business confidence, a monthly survey said on Monday. The seasonally adjusted HSBC India Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) stood at 57.5 in August, below July's reading of 58.1 but above its long-run average of 54.0, signalling a substantial improvement in operating conditions.
'Investors with foreign currency-denominated goals, such as foreign education or foreign travel, should go for US equity funds.'
Stock markets will be driven by domestic inflation data, ongoing quarterly earnings from corporates and global trends this week, analysts said. News flows around the general election would also be tracked by investors, market experts said.
Manufacturing activities in India touched a three-month high in November as new orders and exports expanded boosted by demand resilience and substantial easing of cost pressure, according to a monthly survey released on Thursday. The seasonally adjusted S&P Global India Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) stood at 55.7 in November, up from 55.3 in October, signalling the strongest improvement in operating conditions in three months. The November PMI data pointed to an improvement in overall operating conditions for the 17th straight month.
Type 2 diabetes can be controlled with a combination of lifestyle changes, diet and medical support, says rediffGURU Komal Jethmalani.
Domestic macroeconomic data announcements, global trends and trading activity of foreign investors would guide market sentiments this week, analysts said. After a record rally, markets may face volatile trends this week amid elevated valuations and investors would also keep a track of global oil benchmark Brent crude and rupee-dollar movement for further cues. "Potential volatility in the stock market is anticipated this week. Elevated valuations remain a concern, with investors now focusing on monsoon progress and its impact on the rural economy.
Manufacturing activities in India remained robust and price pressures were contained in October as new orders and production rose at a slower but stronger pace, according to a monthly survey released on Tuesday. The seasonally-adjusted S&P Global India Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was up from 55.1 in September to 55.3 in October. The October PMI data pointed to an improvement in overall operating conditions for the 16th straight month.
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